I think it’s fair to say that the last few years have felt like a whirlwind for most of us. From global pandemics to economic breakdowns, ‘normal’ has increasingly felt like an entirely abstract concept (which it very much is but hey, we’re here to talk about marketing, not philosophy). 

For those of us whose professions require us to be able to analyze and predict the market and behavioral trends, world events have an altogether separate and more acute effect in that it poisons our ‘Trend Well’. If you’re thinking, “that’s weird, I’ve never heard of a Trend Well before”, then you’re not alone because I just made it up for the sake of this analogy:

Marketing campaigns (especially digital ones) are constantly gathering data on how the ads have performed. This data allows us to review granular performance across all sorts of aspects of the campaign (audience, device, time of day, day of week etc), and over time this data, along with what we human brains know of the world, forms our understanding of how users are responding to our ads and why. This amalgamation of performance data and behavioral insights forms what I think of as a ‘Trend Well’; a deep and murky understanding of why. Why customers buy the product, why conversion rates increase at weekends, why a certain keyword outperforms others. 

The information in our Trend Well is always growing and ever-changing, but usually at a fairly manageable pace. The shift from desktop to mobile for example – this change in user behavior was hugely significant, but happened gradually. Marketers could take the time to figure out what it meant for everyone to have a tiny computer in their pocket (and have endless conversations about whether their brand should build an app). 

Over the past few years however, events on both a local and global scale have poisoned the Trend Well; the sudden and seismic shifts in user behavior caused by world events make it almost impossible to rely on that data for future decision-making. 

Let’s take Covid as an obvious example. Lockdowns across the globe caused a huge increase in online sales as shoppers were unable to leave their homes, and non-essential high street retailers were forced to close. Retail therapy had to occur via thumb or finger, DIY was front of mind for most given our perpetual state of being at home, and travel was but a far-flung dream.  This in itself caused retail performance data to swing heavily in favor of certain purchase journeys, which may seem like an additional insight for the Trend Well, but lockdown wasn’t going to last forever. We couldn’t bank that data as a long-term insight, as there was no indication as to how that behavior would change again when lockdown ended. Despite our human brains knowing that lockdown was temporary, the performance data from that time has nevertheless formed part of the rich tapestry of our marketing campaign history. Whilst we humans can look back on the data in the knowledge that it was skewed by global events, we can’t replace that data with ‘accurate’ trends so learnings taken from that period of time need to be considered within the situational context. 

The cost of living crisis has caused the Trend Well to be poisoned further, as many consumers hold back on unnecessary purchases, either as a result of lean household budgets, or media scaremongering. We cannot however assume that decreases in high-ticket purchases or increases in Aldi and Lidl revenues are long-term trends. 

If consumer behavior hasn’t poisoned your Trend Well, it’s nevertheless fairly likely that you had to pull marketing budgets back a bit to accommodate decreased revenues (or increased anxiety) during such times. Decreased budgets mean fewer data, which means less reliable insight for reference in future planning.

Now we’ve moped about a bit about our beloved Trend Well having been poisoned, what can we do about it?

Firstly, don’t let a poisoned Trend Well bring you to the brink of existential crisis. The key is to identify which insights are long-term learnings, and which are spurious Trend Well-poisoners that you may need to discard once the surrounding circumstances have righted themselves. 

Secondly, get back to basics. If you can’t entirely rely on the trends in your performance data then make the most of the things that you can rely on. Best practice evolves along with the Trend Well but doesn’t get poisoned by short-term goings-on in the same way so when in doubt, refer back to the best practice of the advertising platform to improve performance. Every platform (Facebook, Google, Microsoft Bing, Twitter, Snapchat, TikTok etc) has its own best practice parameters which you’ll find on their support pages or help articles. Given these guides pertain to the individual features within the platforms and their respective algorithmic workings, you can’t go far wrong by using their best practice guidelines as your North star. (If you employ a media agency then they’ll be able to tell you all about best practices, and if you’re an Adzooma customer we’re happy to help, just give us a shout.)

Finally, if trends persist and transpire not to be Trend Well-poisoners then you may want to consider how your business can pivot in response. Many previously-offline businesses continue to thrive online in a post-pandemic world, and increased economical pressure has brought lower-cost product lines to the fore (looking at you, Anyday at John Lewis). Whether evolutionary or revolutionary, change in response to such trends can help to futureproof your business, but only if the trend is persistent.

In summary, don’t despair at your idiosyncratic year-on-year performance data. Look forwards and not back, pivot where needed, and if in doubt, follow platform best practices for the best chance of favorable performance. Short-term trends may help to weather the storm, but much like a broken umbrella, they’re best discarded when the rain stops.